Google buying Ford? Not impossible, according to scenario planning conducted by media and ad industry leaders
Industry leaders from networks, Wall Street, research firms, adtech, telcos and others convene to explore potential impacts of emerging technologies over the next five years
NEW YORK, April 25, 2019 – A scenario planning session conducted by 20th Television, the Council for Research Excellence (CRE) and research consultancy Magid hypothesized that an ATSC 3.0-dominant world would be slightly less disruptive than one dominated by 5G. Their findings are documented in a new whitepaper, released today, “The Future of Video: Strategic Planning for Content Creation, Distribution & Monetization.”
In December 2018, a group of 30 industry leaders across a variety of media sectors convened for a one-day scenario planning session to envision the near-future of video distribution and advertising. This creative brainstorming session examined emerging video distribution technologies, envisioned their potential implications, and crafted recommendations for the industry to prepare for the future of video. During the session, participants collectively imagined the potential futures of 5G and ATSC 3.0 against two main modes of advertising, mass targeting and one-to-one targeting.
These factors combined to create four distinct potential scenarios.
- ATSC 3.0 Distribution and Mass Targeting
- ATSC 3.0 Distribution and One-to-One Targeting
- 5G Distribution and Mass Targeting
- 5G Distribution and One-to-One Targeting
“The way that consumers will access mobile and home entertainment content, and their implications for advertising, media and other commercial sectors will be largely determined by the trajectories of ATSC 3.0 and 5G,” said Debbie Reichig, SVP, Media Sales Research & Insights at 20th TV. “By understanding the likely scenarios that may unfold as a result of their implementation, we will all be able to devise enhanced strategies for content, advertising and marketing.”
“Bringing together experts from across various disciplines, organizations, and geographic regions provided a broad spectrum of future oriented ideas and concerns,” shared Richard Zackon, Facilitator, Council for Research Excellence. “The tactical recommendations for content creators, owners, distributers, advertisers, and measurement providers, that this group articulated will set the stage for a more integrated approach to these new technologies.”
In an ATSC 3.0-dominant world, broadcasters would maintain an advantage, preventing tech companies from monopolizing the industry, and live and event programming would remain a broadcast stronghold. To remain competitive, big tech companies should continue to amass more intellectual property.
In a 5G-dominant world, it is likely that big tech companies would have both the advantage and the cash reserves. In this scenario, big tech is expected to capture the rights to sports content, with broadcasters losing their competitive advantage in live programming, eventually fading in relevance. The media landscape is expected to transform significantly, with extremely niche programming dominating the industry, effectively ending the selling of networks and programs. Additionally, brands would depend less on media, instead using data to go direct-to-consumer (DTC). This would likely generate greater concerns about consumer privacy, leading to a greater push for regulation.
There is the potential for both 5G and ATSC 3.0 to reach mass adoption. If this outcome takes place, it would be expected to catalyze a number of major industry shifts:
- Media sales, metrics, resources and workflows will be disrupted
- Management, sales and support teams will need to become more data conversant
- Corporate consolidation would proliferate
- Niche programming would become the norm
- The Internet of Things (IoT) would intensify and expand, with the enablement of self-driving cars and greater data capture of consumers
The whitepaper includes a host of recommendations for players in content creation, distribution, monetization, and measurement to prepare for these possible transformations.
“This session was unusual in that it enabled a cross-industry group to go beyond acknowledging the pace and nature of change to collaboratively explore what that change might ultimately mean for the future of the media industry,” said Mike Bloxham, a facilitator for Magid. “Regardless of how the landscape changes, we now have a better sense of how we should re-think the opportunities and threats that will face our businesses and prepare for the potential implications that these scenarios can bring.”
The full whitepaper is available to download here.
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About 20th Television
A leader in the US program distribution arena, 20th Television provides a wide-array of first-run, network and off-networking programming, as well as feature film packages, to the syndication and cable marketplaces. Off- net shows distributed by 20th Television include “Modern Family,” “Empire,” “Family Guy,” “Last Man Standing,” “COPS Reloaded,” “Bones,” “How I Met Your Mother,” “American Dad,” “Bob’s Burgers,” and “The Simpsons.” First-run programs distributed by 20th Television include television’s longest-running court show, “Divorce Court,” the entertainment magazine program, “Dish Nation,” and the new programs, “Top 30” and “Page Six TV.”
About the Council for Research Excellence
The Council for Research Excellence (CRE) is an independent research group created in 2005. The CRE is dedicated to advancing the knowledge and practice of audience measurement methodology and comprises senior-level industry researchers.
CRE members are ABC Owned Stations, Advertising Research Foundation, Beasley Media Group, CBS, clypd, Cox Media Group, CoxReps, Discovery, Inc., Entercom, ITN Networks, Katz Media Group, the Media Rating Council, National Association of Broadcasters, NBC Universal, Nielsen, Radio Advertising Bureau, Raycom Media, , Television Bureau of Advertising, Tribune Co., Turner Broadcasting, 20th Television, Twitter, UM, Univision, Viacom Entertainment Group and Weigel Broadcasting.
Magid is a consumer-centered business strategy company delivering courageous thinking that shapes better experiences, products and services. Since 1957, thousands of local and global brands in over 40 countries have engaged the firm for bold ideas that have helped achieve innovation and success. The Magid team is passionately curious and driven by the pursuit of improving human experiences with every engagement.
Magid Media Contact:
Bill Daddi, Daddi Brand Communications