Hit Shows Are Made Over Seasons, Not Overnight

Key Takeaways:

• Legacy metrics are no longer sufficient. Relying on pilot performance, first-season ratings, or total minutes viewed fails to capture the true health and potential of a series in the streaming era.
• High-intentionality programming drives superior results. Content that fosters “lean-in” behaviors delivers roughly 2x higher advertising ROI than low-intentionality environments where viewer attention is fragmented by multitasking.
• True hits are often built over seasons. Many modern series reach “hit” status well after their debut. For instance, Severance saw its intentionality score climb from season one to season two, signaling a deepening of audience affinity.
• The “off-season” is a critical growth window. Data from The White Lotus proves that the most significant jumps in quality evaluation can occur between season runs. This indicates audiences are discovering and bonding with content on their own time.
• Intentionality metrics expose the gap between active and passive viewing. While shows like The Pitt and Pulse rack up similar streaming minutes, higher intentionality scores prove which series commands “total attention” rather than functioning as background noise.
• Not all streaming minutes are equal. Indicators like putting down other devices, social media engagement, active re-watching, and bingeing provide a more accurate roadmap for content valuation and advertising effectiveness than raw viewership volume.

The fate of an entire season used to rest on the pilot.

The destiny of the second season would hinge on the performance of the first.

Nielsen and ComScore ratings were often the primary determinants of whether a show got canceled or lived to see another episode.

These perspectives are – and have been – severely outdated. Several years into the streaming era, we’re seeing significant evidence that it takes time for a hit show to become a “hit show.”

Take The White Lotus for example. 

Magid’s EmotionalDNA® (eDNA®) team surveys 3,200 SVOD consumers twice per month, asking a multitude of questions about their streaming behaviors and attitudes towards content. One question asks respondents to evaluate the quality of the shows they watch on a scale from 1 (poor) to 5 (excellent). 

At the end of season 1 of The White Lotus, the show’s evaluation score stood at a 3.95. This is a solid score, but not representative of a “hit show.” After the second season completed its run, the evaluation score rose to 4.21. It hit a high of 4.26 during the same month its third season concluded. 

Interestingly, if you look at the chart below, you’ll see that the most significant growth in the evaluation score actually occurs in between season runs. This cycle indicates viewers are viewing The White Lotus on their own time and highly evaluating it. 

This pattern suggests the first season’s performance alone is not reliably indicative of whether a show will be a hit or not. Rather, the first season should be looked at as an opportunity to build a foundation for positive evaluation feedback.

Let’s look at Severance. 

Another key metric in Magid’s EmotionalDNA survey is intentionality, a proprietary measure of viewer engagement. It is built from 14 interaction behaviors and captures not just what viewers watch, but also how “leaned in” they are while watching.

During the year of Severance’s launch in 2022, audience responses generated an intentionality score of approximately 125. When season 2 came out in 2025, that score rose to 142. This positive trajectory provides a telling depiction of a series with sustained audience affinity. Solid growth in this score from season to season is exactly what stakeholders want to see; it indicates that viewer engagement is deepening rather than fading, serving as a helpful indicator of the overall “health” of the show.

A strong intentionality score reflects active viewer engagement rather than passive exposure, distinguishing content that holds attention from programming that functions as background viewing.

Essentially, it’s measuring whether the viewer is focused on the screen or multitasking with a cell phone, laundry, chores, etc. In lower-intentionality environments, attention is fragmented, which limits both content impact and advertising effectiveness.

This distinction has meaningful commercial implications. Flagship research from Magid and Accenture proved that high-intentionality programming delivers roughly 2× higher advertising ROI than low-intentionality programming, and that shows perceived as higher quality generate 1.7× higher advertising ROI. 

Tracking intentionality over time also provides a leading indicator of sustained audience affinity, with value across ad sales, marketing, and creative teams.

Now, think about The Pitt. 

According to Nielsen, this medical drama was streamed for 852 million minutes during its 15-episode first season on HBO Max – a massive amount of time spent. People streamed Pulse on Netflix, another medical drama, for 952 million minutes across 10 episodes. At first glance, it seems like Pulse had stronger viewership than The Pitt. 

But the amount of time viewed doesn’t give you the full story.

While both series pulled similarly strong streaming minutes, the ways in which people watched and valued the shows differed drastically. The Pitt yields an intentionality score of 141, +43% higher than what Pulse received. This signals that viewers were much more engaged and leaned-in when they watched The Pitt. The evaluation scores tell a similar story.

Time spent and ratings provide a high-level view of series performance. Measures like intentionality and evaluation reveal how audiences engage with a show and what they feel about it. 

“Leaned in” versus “leaned back”

To go even deeper with this analysis, look at the interaction statement charts below. The first measures “Lean-In Interactions,” which comprise a variety of measures that signal that a viewer is highly engaged with a show. It represents viewer-reported responses for the following interaction statements:

• I pay total attention while watching it.
• I make a point to watch new episodes as soon as possible.
• I will watch a number of episodes back to back.
• I talk about this show with others.
• I’d like to re-watch this show.
• I read about the show online.
• I watch because people will be talking about it.
• I follow or ‘like’ the show on social media.
• I share comments or updates about it on social media.

In the second chart, the “Lean-Back Interactions” comprise a series of passive viewing indicators. EmotionalDNA® asks viewers whether they agree or disagree with these statements:

• If I’m surfing or browsing and I see it on, I might watch it.
• I watch it in the background as I’m doing something else, like doing chores or using my computer.
• I have very little interest and I only rarely watch.
• I watch it only if nothing else better is on.
• I can’t really remember when/where to see it.

Based on the data, The Pitt is clearly not a “background show.” More than one out of three viewers of Pulse, contrastingly, put it in “background show” territory. Furthermore, 65% of viewers report that they pay “total attention” when The Pitt is on the screen. Compare that to just 35% saying they do so for Pulse. 

These are critical distinctions to understand about attention and viewership before you invest your ad dollars or allocate your marketing and creative budgets. Not all ratings points – or streaming minutes – are created equal.

Viewing dynamics in the entertainment industry have changed significantly. Measurement must as well.

This isn’t just a story about shifting viewing habits; it’s a story about the evolution of how we evaluate those viewing dynamics. While ratings, minutes streamed, first season reception, and pilot episode performance are all important, they lack the nuance required to understand how people actually engage with content today.

In an era where high-intentionality programming delivers 2× higher advertising ROI, relying on legacy metrics is no longer a viable strategy. To maximize the impact of marketing and creative dollars, stakeholders must look beyond if people are watching and understand how they are watching. By capturing the emotional triggers and lean-in behaviors of the viewers themselves, eDNA provides the roadmap for turning a first-season foundation into a long-term, high-value hit.

To learn more about eDNA, visit https://magid.com/human-intelligence/emotionaldna/