We’ve heard celebrities say it’s an honor just to be nominated. This acknowledgement in and of itself precedes an entertainer’s name moving forward, catapulting careers and paychecks to another level. Winning is, of course, even better.
Part of the fun during awards season is trying to predict the winners. The current topic of conversation is the 76th Annual Golden Globes, which will be hosted by comedian Andy Samberg and actress Sandra Oh this Sunday, January 6.
Produced by Dick Clark Productions in association with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA), the show will air live on NBC at 8:00 p.m. EST/5:00 p.m. PST and will be seen in more than 210 territories worldwide. This year marks the 44th consecutive year and the 48th time that The Beverly Hilton has been home to the star-studded event.
Without a crystal ball it’s challenging to predict who will win, but TV Time culled a list of its predicted Golden Globe winners in each TV category based on tracking activity in its app.
Close to one million TV fans worldwide come into the app daily to track and react to their shows. Series winners are based on tracked viewership (they marked the show as watched in the app) and actor/actress winners are based on character votes at the episode level (the user voted on a favorite character in the episode in the app).
- Best Television Series – Drama: Bodyguard
- Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Drama: Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)
- Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Drama: Richard Madden (Bodyguard)
- Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy: The Good Place
- Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy: Kristen Bell (The Good Place)
- Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy: Jim Carrey (Kidding)
- Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television: The Alienist (TNT)
- Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television: Amy Adams (Sharp Objects)
- Best Performance by an Actor in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television: Darren Criss (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
- Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television: Thandie Newton (Westworld)
- Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television: Edgar Ramirez (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
On the film side, the nominations across the board are much more diversified than in years past. According to Magid SVP Global Media and Entertainment, Mike Bloxham, two things stand out from this year’s nominations. The first, and perhaps most significant, Bloxham says, is the strong representation of content about aspects of the African American experience in America, or which feature strong central characters who are African American.
Bloxham references three of the five nominees for Best Motion Picture: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman and If Beale Street Could Talk, all films that feature African American protagonists and largely African American casts. “This is probably the single biggest indicator that the awards are increasingly reflecting the gradual progress being made towards greater depictions of diversity on the big screen. With acting and other nominations also going to Green Book, Atlanta and Crazy Rich Asians it should turn out to be a good night for diversity.”
The second big takeaway, adds Bloxham, is the continued strength of the streaming platforms. “Netflix, Amazon and Hulu are all there with particularly strong contenders. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, The Handmaid’s Tale, The Kominsky Method, A Very English Scandal and others illustrate how the streaming giants have impacted the TV landscape.”
Principal Analyst, Video, at eMarketer, Paul Verna, weighs in on streaming versus traditional TV and what a win means in today’s increasingly competitive environment. “Awards shows matter a great deal and arguably more than ever in an age when we no longer have standardized, objective benchmarks of TV show performance across the distribution spectrum. In 2018, there were more shows on streaming services than on any other category of broadcast/cable TV. With those streaming services generally not releasing viewership stats, it’s impossible to know how one of their shows compares with a TV/cable program that’s captured by Nielsen.”
Verna adds that a similar dynamic is unfolding in the film industry with releases like Roma having much shorter theatrical distribution windows before going to streaming. “Once they start streaming, we have the same black-box effect as we do with TV shows. Granted, audience size is only one measure of success. A show or movie can be critically acclaimed but not do well in ratings or at the box office. Still, the validation that comes from getting an award, and being able to market the show/film accordingly, is of great value to streaming services, film studios and TV networks. If you think about how an Oscar or Golden Globe can catapult an actor’s career, it’s not farfetched to assume that the same benefits accrue to the companies that produce and distribute the content.”
Overall, says Verna, this is a difficult time for traditional TV networks. “They still command large audiences, and awards, for their news, entertainment, late-night, sports and other franchises and they’d rather not lose audiences to subscription-based streaming services, as they’ve been doing. They’re still vital to the media ecosystem.”
Many feel the Globes are a predictor of the Oscars but Comscore Senior Media Analyst, Paul Dergarabedian, says though the Globes can often be a harbinger of the results at the Academy Awards, given their unpredictable nature, one would be ill-advised to base their Oscar pool on the results. “This year’s crop of nominated films and talent are notable for their overall quality and diversity boasting one of the most interesting and compelling lineups of nominees in recent memory.”